Alton, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXUS66 KEKA 060711
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1211 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures inland this weekend. A slight
chance of thunderstorms over the Klamath Mountains and the Yolla
Bollas on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Windy afternoons
return to NW California by the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge aloft over the northeastern Pacific will migrate over into
Oregon and Washington through the day. This change in the weather
pattern will cause warmer 850mb temperatures, up near 20-23C,
through the weekend into next week. Inland valleys are expected to
crest above 100F with Big Bar off CA299 having a 30% probability of
over 110F on Monday afternoon. Marine air intrusion via the Russian
river valley due to southerly winds will probably keep southern
Mendocino County from getting above 100F this weekend. However, it
will still be hot, and we will continue to message heat and river
safety rips in weather story graphics.

A semi-closed low aloft (700-500mb) is forecast to bring an increase
in mid level humidity and E-SE flow Sat-Sun. GFS has trend with
higher CAPE and instability over NE Trinity mountains as early as
Sat, however the soundings look super dry in the lower atmosphere.
Convective parameters for storms increase on Sunday and more so on
Monday per the GFS model. It will still be really dry in the lower
atmosphere and with 100F degree heat bubbling up in afternoon a few
updrafts could break through the mid level stable layer. Once
convection begins the storms may spread NW into Del Norte County
Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast confidence remains low
for this event due to the minimal forcing for the potential storms.

Mid level cyclonic circulation is forecast to slowly meander across
the area early to mid next week. Moisture does not look to be in
abundant supply. Main impacts appear to be CG strikes and gusty
outflow winds given inverted-V profiles indicated by the GFS model.
NBM 12hr thunderstorm probabilities are sitting around 10-20% for
this weekend into early next week.

The potential for more storms on Tue. diminishes, however models
continue to struggle with the rate of progression of a semi-closed
low and another upstream shortwave trough in the westerly flow. Thus
storm chances seem on the fringe of possibilities in far NE Trinity
on Tue. Brief ridging on Tue may be followed by a deeper trough Wed
and Thu next week. This trough looks quite dry and main impacts
appear to be a return of stronger gusty winds.


&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...
A shallow marine layer has blanketed much of the coastal waters,
with stratus along the coastal areas and adjacent river valleys. IFR
conditions at KACV, becoming LIFR conditions with low ceilings and
visibility in fog after 8Z. Southerly reversal flow continues
advecting stratus northward toward KCEC, offshore northeasterly
flow remains along the Del Norte coast causing precluding stratus
to lap the area. Otherwise, variable conditions between VFR and
MVFR are expected to continue at KCEC through late tonight. For
inland areas, stratus is expected to continue advecting northward
from Santa Rosa and reach UKI around 12Z aiding a period of IFR
ceilings. Short-term guidances suggests stratus will be stubborn
to scatter out along the coast on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force gusts continue across the northern outer
waters and around Point St. George through late tonight and very
steep seas and hazardous conditions persist through Friday
morning. Strong northerly winds continue to diminish and push
farther offshore around 50-60nm into Saturday, with gentle to
moderate winds expected through the weekend. In addition,
southerly reversal winds are forecast to develop south of Cape
Mendocino on Friday throughout the day with a low pressure
evolving into a closed low. Seas will gradually subside on Friday,
but steep seas are expected to continue producing hazardous
conditions for small crafts across the outer waters through
Saturday. Followed by low seas around 2 to 5 feet on Sunday.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ470.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png